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WILL SHOPPERS FIND BLACK FRIDAY DEALS THIS YEAR? HOW MUCH ARE SHOPPERS EXPECTED TO SPEND? Spending online during Black Friday is expected to rise 5.7% to roughly $9.6 billion, according to Adobe. WHAT ARE RETAILERS DOING TO ATTRACT HOLIDAY SHOPPERS? Macy's CEO Jeff Gennette on Thursday said the competitive landscape has shifted to Black Friday deals prior to Black Friday.

Persons: Marcus Collins, Collins, Jane Hali, Max, Lancome mascaras, Bobbi Brown concealers, Dana Telsey, Leonardo Fernandez Viloria, David Bujnicki, Kimco, Jeff Gennette, Mattel, Steve Totzke, Juveria Tabassum, Savyata Mishra, Richa Naidu, Helen Reid, Herbert Lash, Josie Kao Organizations: Retailers, Department, Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, Dollar, Walmart, Associates, Nordstrom, Adobe Analytics, Electronics, Mastercard, National Retail Federation, Telsey Advisory, Sensormatic Solutions, U.S, Black, REUTERS, Adobe, Labor, Kimco Realty Corp, Consumers, Deloitte, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, Philadelphia, China, United States, Caracas, Venezuela, Panama, Israel, Sixth, Washington, Germany, India, Spain, United Kingdom, Bengaluru, London

[1/2] A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday hastened market expectations for how soon the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Such a move would weaken a major dollar support and could come as early as next year's first quarter. The yen - punished broadly this year by dollar strength - broke the 150 mark for the first time in nearly two weeks, gaining 0.69% to 149.68 to the dollar. Japanese authorities do not have specific exchange-rate levels in mind when deciding when to intervene in the currency market, Deputy Finance Minister Ryosei Akazawa told parliament on Friday.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Bipan Rai, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Ryosei Akazawa, Lee Hardman, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, Christine Lagarde, Herbert Lash, Iain Withers, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook, Alexander Smith, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, FX, Eurostat, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, North America, Toronto, United States, Macquarie, New York, Britain, London, Singapore

[1/2] A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday reset market expectations for how soon the Federal Reserve will cut rates and weighed on the dollar. The greenback is poised for its biggest weekly drop since July, down 1.6% over the past five days, and second-biggest decline this year. Data that showed U.S. single-family homebuilding increased marginally in October briefly supported the dollar, but with inflation the main market driver it remained lower on the day. The euro was up 0.17% at $1.0868 after Eurostat data confirmed year-on-year inflation in the euro zone slowed sharply in October.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Bipan Rai, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Lee Hardman, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, Christine Lagarde, Herbert Lash, Iain Withers, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook, Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, FX, Eurostat, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, North America, Toronto, United States, Macquarie, New York, Britain, London, Singapore

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. ET (1500 GMT) with a 152 strike price, analysts said. The dollar shot to 151.92 yen at 9:42 a.m. (1442 GMT), its highest level since October 2022, and then tumbled to 151.20 minutes after the strike price. Earlier, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The yen is down almost 14% against the dollar this year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shunichi Suzuki, Marc Chandler, It's, Chandler, Jerome Powell, Geoff Yu, Sterling, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, David Cameron, Suella Braverman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Brigid Riley, Emelia Sithole, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Japanese Finance, Bank of Japan, Bannockburn Global, United Auto Workers, Federal Reserve, BNY Mellon, British, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, U.S, Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

Powell's remarks on Thursday that the fight to restore price stability "had a long way to go" at first roiled markets. "If we were to get a low CPI next week, yields can come down around that number and we may get some weakening in the dollar." MSCI's gauge of global equity performance (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.54%, while stocks on Wall Street surged 1% or more. U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Thursday after a very weak 30-year bond auction. U.S. crude rose $1.43 to settle at $77.17 a barrel, while Brent settled up $1.42 at $81.43 a barrel.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Michael James, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Mullarkey, Tapas Strickland, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasignhe, Tomasz Janowski, Richard Chang Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Federal, Wedbush Securities, Fed, FX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, SLC Management, Reuters, NAB, New, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Los Angeles, Macquarie, New York, Europe, Boston, China, Beijing, New Zealand, London

"If we were to get a low CPI next week, yields can come down around that number and we may get some weakening in the dollar," Wizman said. The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, fell 0.2 basis points to 5.020%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was down 3.2 basis points at 4.598%. Traders would be keeping a close watch on interest rate volatility, said Schneller, noting major market fluctuations recently. "A primary cause for this volatility is the debate over whether the current Fed funds rate is overly high or insufficient." In currency markets, the dollar index rose 0.019% to 105.91, with the euro up 0.04% to $1.067.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Powell, Jerome Powell, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Powell's, Bruno Schneller, Schneller, Tapas Strickland, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasignhe, Tomasz Janowski, Richard Chang Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, International Monetary Fund, Fed, FX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, INVICO Asset Management, Reuters Graphics U.S, NAB, New, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Macquarie, New York, China, Beijing, New Zealand, London

[1/2] FILE PHOTO: The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. MSCI's gauge of global stock performance (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.05%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.06%. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index rose 0.332% to 105.61, with the euro down 0.31% to $1.0682. Treasury yields slid, having unwound some of their rally last week after the Fed left rates unchanged following a policy meeting. The two-year's yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, fell 1.3 basis points to 4.928%, while the 10-year slipped 7.5 basis points at 4.587%.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Rick Meckler, we've, Michael Hewson, Brent, Tom Wilson, Tom Westbrook, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Kim Coghill, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, NEW, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Chicago, Cherry Lane Investments, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of Australia, Treasury, Fed, CMC, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Europe, U.S, New Vernon , New Jersey, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London, Singapore

The U.S. central bank could even be forced to raise rates to ensure the pace of inflation remains on a downward trajectory and does not bounce back, Goldberg said. Markets also imply about an 80% probability the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates by April, while the Bank of England (BoE) is seen easing in August. An outlier is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume raising rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation there stays stubbornly high. The head of the central bank said on Monday it was closer to achieving its inflation target, but it was still not enough to end ultra-loose policy. The drop in the dollar and yields has helped underpin gold, as investors have cautiously turned back to riskier assets.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Anthony Saglimbene, Saglimbene, We're, BoE, Jerome Powell, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Germany's, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, New York, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Troy , Michigan, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia

Hopes for lower borrowing costs overnight helped shares in Asia, which missed out on Friday's rally that was inspired by the U.S. jobs data. DOLLAR DROPSTwo-year Treasury yields , which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 5.9 bps to 4.891% after falling 18 bps last week. The recent retreat in Treasury yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar last week. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, was steady at 105.07 after sliding 1.4% last week. U.S. crude rose 1.73% to $81.90 per barrel and Brent was at $86.07, up 1.39% on the day.

Persons: Issei Kato, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, BoE, Samy Chaar, Jerome Powell, Brent, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Lombard, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, New York, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza

☆ Oil, Treasuries, gold prices jump amid Mideast fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. Spot gold added 3.2% on the day to $1,928.99 an ounce, and had its biggest weekly percentage gain since March. "Everything that's going on in the Middle East is getting more and more unfortunately depressing and seems to have the potential to get worse," he said. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.98% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.81%. The dollar was also helped by safe-haven buying driven by the escalating Middle East conflict.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Treasuries, Brent, Marvin Loh, Herbert Lash, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Marguerita Choy, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Treasury, JPMorgan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Boston, New York

☆ Treasuries, gold prices rise, stocks fall on Mideast fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 was lower despite upbeat results from big U.S. banks on Friday, which marked the unofficial start of the third-quarter reporting period for S&P 500 companies. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.97% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.67%. The index, which jumped 0.8% on Thursday, its biggest one-day rise since March 15, is on pace to finish the week higher. U.S. crude recently rose 4.19% to $86.38 per barrel and Brent was at $89.48, up 4.05% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tom di Galoma, Brent, Herbert Lash, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton, Kim Coghill, Chizu Nomiyama, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, JPMorgan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, BTIG, New York

☆ Dollar gains after US consumer prices rise more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The dollar rose sharply on Thursday after U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in September, lifted by an elevated cost of rent that raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high for some time. The consumer price index increased 0.4% last month, with a 0.6% jump in the cost of shelter accounting for more than half of the rise. The dollar rose more than 1% against sterling, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Owners' equivalent rent, a measure of the amount homeowners would pay to rent or would earn from renting their property, rose even though non-official sources show a decline in rental prices. Thursday's CPI release came after Wednesday's mixed report on U.S. producer prices, and minutes from the Fed's September meeting.

Persons: Douglas Porter, Bipan Rai, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, BoE, Wednesday's, Herbert Lash, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Emelia Sithole, Mark Potter, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, New, CIBC Capital Markets, Fed, Bank of England, CPI, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Oakville, Canada, New Zealand, North America, Toronto, New York, London, Bengaluru, Singapore

☆ Bond yields ease, stocks near flat ahead of Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. The Fed minutes are due later Wednesday, and investors will assess them for further hints about the economic outlook and where U.S. rates are heading. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.15% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.19%. Global stocks have edged higher in recent sessions with U.S. bond yields - which underpin borrowing costs around the world - easing as Fed officials have suggested interest rate hikes may be over for now. U.S. crude fell 2.68% to $83.67 per barrel and Brent was at $85.73, down 2.19% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Edward Moya, Brent, Herbert Lash, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Alex Richardson, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Treasury, Reserve, Palestinian, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, New York, London, Singapore

Bostic was partly responding to the outburst of violence in Israel and Gaza, said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet in New York. "You can pretty much count on the Fed taking that into its world view and that's only going to be lower rates." U.S. Treasuries rallied, pushing two-year yields to their lowest in a month, as safe-haven demand was driven by the ongoing Mideast bloodshed and dovish Fed comments. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury , which moves inversely to the price, was down 12.5 basis points at 4.6571%. The Swiss franc , a traditional safe-haven currency, was at 0.9045 to the dollar, which weakened about 0.21%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Trevisani, Treasuries, Shaun Osborne, Israel's shekel, They're, Chris Turner, Herbert Lash, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis, Mark Heinrich, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, American Bankers Association, U.S, Scotiabank, Traders, Bloomberg, Analysts, Columbus, Kyodo, Bank of Japan, . Treasury, ING, Swiss, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Israel, Gaza, New York, Toronto, Palestinian, London, Singapore

[1/2] Euro and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The euro fell 0.19% to $1.0566 but the dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, retreated 0.16% after earlier trading higher. The Japanese yen , another traditional safe-haven currency, edged higher 0.57% higher to 148.47 per dollar. Net long positions on the dollar rose to a one-year high, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the net long dollar position was $10.55 billion for the week ended Oct. 6.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Benjamin Netanyahu, Brad Bechtel, Bechtel, Marc Chandler, I'm, Chandler, Sterling, Swedish krona, Paul Mackel, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Christina Fincher, Mark Potter, Will Dunham, Leslie Adler Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Israel, FX, Jefferies, Hamas, Bannockburn Global, U.S ., Canadian, New, Norwegian, U.S . Commodity Futures, Commission, Federal Reserve, Group, HSBC, Golden, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Israeli, New York, Japan, Bannockburn, New Zealand, Swedish, U.S, Asia, London, Singapore

"It's pretty evident that the jobs market and the consumer are doing OK. Claims are still very, very low," he said. If claims are up to mid-250,000 by year's end, "that's a fairly obvious sign that there's a loosening of the labor market." "The question everyone's asking is: can yields continue to rise further and at what point are yields going to cause some serious damage on the economy?" The dollar index fell 0.234%, with the euro up 0.25% at $1.0529. All 11 sectors of the S&P index were in the red, with the big megacap growth stocks leading the decline.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Wall, Mike Sanders, Baylee Wakefield, Brent, Dennis Kissler, Elizabeth Howcroft, Elaine Hardcastle, Sharon Singleton, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Madison Investments, Labor Department, Reuters, Aviva Investors, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Analysts, Bank of, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, BOK, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Madison , Wisconsin, Bank of Japan

Treasury yields later receded on a cooler-than-expected U.S. private payrolls report that helped stocks on Wall Street rebound from Tuesday's sharp sell-off. "The market was so over-sold that it was looking for a catalyst to rally on and found it in ADP." The yield on 10-year Treasury notes touched 4.884%, a fresh 16-year high, while 30-year Treasury yields rose above 5% for the first time since August 2007. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAustralian, Canadian and British government bond yields have also surged this week. Gold prices crept lower for the eighth consecutive session as elevated Treasury yields amid expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer weighed on investor sentiment.

Persons: Kim Rupert, Rupert, Rhys Williams, Brendan McDermid, Kit Juckes, Brent, Herbert Lash, Tom Wilson, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, ADP, Management, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights Australian, U.S ., Thomson Locations: San Francisco, Bryn Mawr , Pennsylvania, U.S, New York City, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Tokyo, Russia, London, Sydney

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. "It has all the hallmarks of intervention in all honesty," said Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader X in London. The dollar fell 0.71% to 149.165 yen hovered near break-even against the euro . The yen is a particular casualty of the dollar's march to 10-month highs and the rise in Treasury yields, given a yawning gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates. Gold prices languished near a seven-month low, weighed down by a robust dollar and elevated bond yields as the likelihood of U.S. rates staying higher for longer dominated sentiment.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Michael Brown, Ronald Temple, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Jamie Freed, Susan Fenton, Jan Harvey, Deepa Babington, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Federal Reserve, Trader, Labor, Survey, Lazard, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Atlanta Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, London, New York, Japan, Singapore

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The dollar fell as low as 147.30 yen versus the Japanese currency, after hitting a one-year high of 150.165. Tuesday's low in the dollar was its weakest level in three weeks versus the Japanese currency. The euro dropped to a roughly two-month low against the yen of 154.39 yen and was last down 0.7% to 155.99. That earlier drove the dollar higher as real interest rates factor in inflation.

Persons: Florence Lo, Shunichi Suzuki, Colin Asher, Sterling, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Herbert Lash, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Lucy Raitano, Joice Alves, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Japan, Japanese Finance, New York Federal Reserve, Mizuho, Bannockburn Global, U.S . Labor, Labor, Survey, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Bannockburn, New York

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The sharp move lower suggested the Bank of Japan had intervened in the market to keep the yen from falling further. "It has all the hallmarks of intervention in all honesty," said Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader X in London. "The continued uptrend in UST-JGB encouraged the 150 to be breach in the wake of the better-than-expected JOLTS data. The dollar slipped 0.51% against the yen to 149.08 after hitting 150.165 on the JOLTS report.

Persons: Florence Lo, Michael Brown, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Stretch, Shunichi Suzuki, Wei Liang Chang, Russia's rouble, Herbert Lash, Brigid Riley, Alun John, Joice Alves, Kevin Buckland, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, Trader, Bannockburn Global, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Finance, DBS, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: London, Bannockburn, New York, United States, Europe, Tokyo

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "It's the feeling that the U.S. economy can stomach higher interest rates for a little bit longer," said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "Implicitly it also means that the Fed might not be so quick to cut rates next year either," he said. The Japanese yen weakened 0.31% versus the greenback at 149.77, after falling to 149.90. Investors have been closely watching for signs of intervention in the Japanese currency by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

Persons: Florence Lo, Kevin McCarthy, Bipan Rai, Edward Moya, Michelle Bowman, Shunichi Suzuki, Chuck Mikolajczak, Marguerita Choy, Alison Williams Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management, Congress, Democratic, Republican, Treasury, CIBC Capital Markets, Investors, Bank of Japan, Fed, Bank of Japan's, Japan's Finance, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Toronto, New York

The forecasts seem at odds as higher rates raise the credit costs that can crimp the economy. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of global equity performance and stocks on Wall Street bounced back while Treasury yields, which move inversely to price, retreated. Yields on two- and 10-year notes remained inverted at -68.3 basis points as the shorter-dated note yields more than the longer one. MSCI's all-world country index for stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.14%, but the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.31%. Oil prices rose as renewed global supply concerns from Russia's fuel export ban countered demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and higher interest rates.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Marvin Loh, Joe LaVorgna, SMBC, Brent, Craig Ebert, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Marguerita Choy, Rashmi Aich, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank, Japan, Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Investors, Bank of England, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Asia, Japan, China, Sweden, Norway, BNZ, Wellington

Yet higher rates typically crimp bank loans and raise the cost of credit. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of global equity performance and stocks on Wall Street bounced back while the dollar and Treasury yields, which move inversely to price, retreated. The initial reassessment of the Fed's higher-for-longer policy drove the rise in Treasury yields and created headwinds for risk assets, including equities, credit and emerging markets, but supported the dollar. MSCI's all-world country index for stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.37%, but the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) fell 0.39%. In emerging markets, Indian bonds and the rupee rallied after JPMorgan said it would add Indian debt to its widely tracked emerging markets index, setting the stage for billions of dollars in foreign inflows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Marvin Loh, Brent, Craig Ebert, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Marguerita Choy, Rashmi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank, Japan, U.S, Treasury, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Investors, Bank of England, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, U.S . Federal, Boston, Asia, Japan, China, Sweden, Norway, BNZ, Wellington

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday kept its key lending rate steady, as expected, but indicated another hike is possible as it and other central banks tighten policy to tame inflation. Major equity indices in Europe and on Wall Street fell more than 1% on concerns higher rates will curb growth. /FRXMirroring a rise in Treasury yields, Germany's 10-year government bond yield touched a fresh six-month high of 2.73% and Britain's 10-year gilt yield rose to 4.29% after falling on Wednesday to its lowest since July. Gold extended its decline for a third straight day as the dollar and Treasury yields rallied on the Fed's warning of a possible additional rate hike.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, there's, Michael Arone, Jack Ablin, it's, John Hardy, Hardy, Brent, Xie Yu, Marguerita Choy, Tomasz Janowski, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Swiss, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, Reuters, Treasury, Cresset Capital Management, Saxo Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Sterling, Reuters Graphics, U.S, West Texas Intermediate, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Norway, Sweden, Europe, Boston, Pebble Beach , Florida, Hong Kong

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

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